interview
India needs to extend all possible help to Myanmar
- What is your assessment about the release of Aung San Suu Kyi? Will she be able to unite the opposition and become the leader for a more democratic Myanmar again?
Whatever was the motive of the Myanmar junta in releasing Aung San Suu Kyi on 13 November, few weeks after the first national elections in two decades, one thing is clear, the junta is today more self-assured and that it is ready to take the political risk to release. But there should be no doubt in everyone’s mind that if the junta feels Suu Kyi could pose a threat to them, then they will not shy away from locking her up again. The likely directions of the country’s politics remain uncertain. An analysis of Suu Kyi’s statements after her release evidently suggests that she would try to unite the opposition groups, how she will do it and whether she will achieve it remains to be seen. Suu Kyi continues to be an important figure among the pro-democracy supporters and it is likely she will play an important role in the country’s politics. However, her leadership role in a more democratic Myanmar will depend on many factors including her own activities, positions of the various opposition (including the ethnic nationalities groups) and finally, how the junta will react.
- Do you think the military would be ready to provide space for a real democratic transition in the country or do you think they are unwilling to share any power?
The new 2008 constitution envisages power-sharing by reserving seats for the military representatives in the parliament. This may be seen as a sign of the junta attempting to open up the system in the form of sharing of power, but they are not yet ready to give up power totally. Whether this small opening could be further strengthened by the democratic groups to effect real change in the country will be a function of several dynamics that will play out in the months and years to come. It may be too early to say how things will shape up and whether the changes will pave the way for a real change in Myanmar.
- Do you think Aung San Suu Kyi would be able to translate the emotional and moral support she gets into a political force to reignite the NLD?
Suu Kyi has said after her release that she will try to revive her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD). Suu Kyi has set for herself the task to revitalize her party and one of her first priorities was, therefore, to challenge the disbandment of her party. Remember that the NLD did not take part in the recently concluded elections and because it did not reregistered itself a political party, it was disbanded. More importantly, Suu Kyi faces a new political landscape with many other democratic groups representing various voices and groups. Suu Kyi remains a symbol of hope for many pro-democracy supporters, but in the new political environment it is difficult to see how she could transforms the moral support into a real political force. The challenge Suu Kyi faces today is how to convert the moral support she enjoys into a real force.
- Who do you think are the main stakeholders within Myanmar for a transition towards a more democratic system beneficial for its people?
The three main stakeholders in Myanmar are the military, the democratic parties/groups, and the various ethnic nationalities groups. Any political transition will have to involve the three players. Whether one likes it or not, the military is an important stakeholder and it will be unrealistic if the military’s role in the political transition of the country is not included. The task before Myanmar, particularly the democratic groups, is how they gradually strengthen democratic control over the military in the coming years. And because change inside Myanmar is likely to be incremental and slow, the challenge is how to ensure that there is no rollback of the process.
- What role could India play in the process of internal reconciliation in Myanmar?
Like any external player, India’s role is limited in Myanmar’s internal reconciliation process. But New Delhi can certainly play a constructive role with the aim to encourage all the various key players in Myanmar to work towards a stable and democratic country. The test for Indian diplomacy will be how it engages all the players and ensure that change in Myanmar does not negatively affect its interests in the long-term. How New Delhi balances its ties with all the stakeholders without creating a situation where its ties with one player is seen by other players as a policy that stands against their interests is critical for India. There is an urgent need for capacity-building in Myanmar and India is well-placed to further extend assistance in the field of education, health, I&T, and other sectors. It is important that human resources are developed in Myanmar, so that, they become the drivers of change.
- What recommendations would you give the Indian government with regard to its current foreign policy approach towards Myanmar?
New Delhi’s current Myanmar policy of engaging the military regime, while quietly nudging it for reforms is the way forward in the given geo-political scenario and it is unlikely that New Delhi will change its Myanmar policy in the near future. However, in the context of the new political realities that is currently shaping up in Myanmar, it is important that New Delhi engages with all stakeholders in Myanmar – the military, the pro-democracy groups and the ethnic nationalities. And as mentioned above, India needs to extend all possible help to Myanmar in all the sectors but most importantly in the social and economic sector that benefits the common Burmese people.
Interview of Dr. K Yhome, Associate Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, who is an expert on South Asia and South-East Asia. Email: yhome@orfonline.org,