THE FLIGHT TO NOWHERE
Pakistan’s Nuclear Trajectory
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OUTLINE
- India-Pakistan Nuclear History – A Snapshot
- Regional Nuclear Politics: China, India, Pakistan
- Rattling the Nuclear Saber
- Why Minimal Deterrence Quietly Died
- The Race For Nuclear Superiority
- Nuclear Warhead Development
- Missile Capability
- Aircraft Capability
- The Skill Deficit
- Safety and Security of Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal
- Pakistan’s Nuclear Diplomacy
- Predicting Pakistan’s Nuclear Direction
- The Case for De-Nuclearization
References
Abbreviations
Abstract
This chapter traces the early development of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, situates the weapons in the larger context of China and India, and goes on to discuss the crises that followed their operationalization after the 1998 tests. It argues that false assumptions, shifting goals, and a high level of risk-taking have made deterrence less effective with time. Using publicly available information, the current state of the nuclear arsenal, missiles, and aircraft is presented, together with a discussion of what might constrain further expansion. The loose nukes problem is discussed, together with Pakistani efforts to deal with it politically and technically. The prognosis for the next several years is that, barring a major US-led global denuclearization drive, both Pakistan and India will continue to rapidly expand their nuclear arsenals and delivery systems.
The author’s Profile
Pervez Amir Ali Hoodbhoy is professor of nuclear and high energy physics, as well as chairman, at the department of physics, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad. He received his BS, MS, and PhD degrees from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and remains an active physicist who often lectures at US and European research laboratories and universities. Dr. Hoodbhoy received the Baker Award for Electronics and the Abdul Salam Prize for Mathematics.
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