The climate science, especially the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), got heavily criticised regarding the fourth IPCC report in the recent weeks. How reliable are the results of climate research and what is your opinion concerning the problems of the IPCC review?
The IPCC by its own is not in charge of doing research. It is only summarizing the current state of knowledge and for that it examines scientific publications. Hundreds of scientists are occupied in this scientific procurement of data and in light of the scale of the task errors are inevitable.
These failures are inadvertent but do refer to a deficit in the audit. Errors occur almost in every exercise but that should not be an excuse for the deficits. These deficits in accuracy need to be fixed before the next report.
However, with respect to the compelling amount of information on the current state of research that is assorted and evaluated by the IPCC, it must be guaranteed that it is accomplished in an accurate manner. The expectation is that the conclusions in the report are highly reliable – even though these unfortunate single errors occurred. Notwithstanding the errors, the conclusion still stands firm that human activities are the actual reasons of persisting climate change.
What kind of mistakes was made in the study of Himalayan glaciers and what is the current state of knowledge on the topic? How reliable is the glacial research and what are the recent insights?
Strictly speaking with respect to this mentioned study, one particular criteria of the IPCC which was breached was that it was not from a peer-reviewed article, published in a scientific journal. It was a report of an expert committee or in other words a non scientific, inappropriate source. Thus it did not correspond to the scientific norms.
The IPCC report quotes the World Wildlife Fund for Nature (WWF 2005), saying that the Himalayan glaciers could vanish by 2035. The WWF refers to a document from the Working Group on Himalyan Glaciology of the International Commission for Snow and Ice from the year 1999. The year 2035 was also mentioned in a News Report published in the esteemed scientific journal New Scientist in 1999 by interviewing the chairman of this particular committee. This fact was never confirmed scientifically.
In comparison to peer-reviewed professional articles the disadvantage of such reports arises. If sources are quoted consistently in a deduced manner, it is hard to reconstruct conclusions. In this respect the IPCC made a mistake which should not be repeated in the future. .
Nevertheless, the glaciers of the Himalayan region are under a big environmental threat. Recent studies prove clearly the fact that the glaciers are melting away. In 2008 a Chinese research team verified for approximately 20 glaciers in the Himalayan highlands that they had lost roughly more than five percent of their area during the recent 45 years. Only for one glacier growth was attested less than 0.5 percent.
The threat is obviously real. Regarding the glaciers in the region of Himachal Pradesh especially in the lower and middle attitude, a rapid ice mass loss can be shown. This situation is fatal as normally the glaciers regulate the drainage of the rivers during summer. Results like this were not included in the last IPCC report as they were published after the deadline. But it will be definitely considered in the upcoming report.
What are the threats and challenges for South Asia with regards to the glacier melt caused by global warming?
In the next decades the melting of the Himalayan glaciers could lead to several problems. Numerous Asian large rivers receive huge amounts of their waters from these glaciers. Concerning an accelerated glacial melt the Ganges for example could be subjected to increasing seasonal influences. This means that the availability of freshwater will change, which has an effect on irrigation and thereby food production for e.g. in the Indo-Ganges area. We need to act equipped with this knowledge and develop immediate solutions to use water resources more efficiently. This should be considered especially in a country like India where population grows rapidly. The point is not of glaciers decreasing 2, 3 or 5 percent each decade, but problems that hinder development and cause calamities as a result of changing climate conditions . We have to develop solutions for these problems; we do not have any other choice there. Regions in South America have acknowledged that big Cities like Lima or Santiago de Chile obtain there drinking water exclusively out of glacial waters and now have to deal with the questions of sustainable usage.
To what extend is India prepared for climate change and the impact of global warming?
India is definitely a country facing huge challenges, especially due its rapid demographic development. But also with respect to the environmental context as the outcomes of human economic activity cannot be limited in a singular region.
In other words, there will be further obstacles with regards to prospective development caused by global warming. West Bengal, for instance, is a region that is somewhat situated above sea level. In addition, the neighbouring country of Bangladesh will also be affected by rising sea level in the ongoing 21st century.
There exists not only big danger of land loss but also of huge migratory movements. Furthermore, Mumbai and also the backwaters of Kerala are threatened by rising sea level. Last-mentioned region is a huge producer of crops thereby any land loss would have fatal effects on food security. Some scientific research points to the possible changes in the behaviour of the monsoon, although more research will be necessary to validate this fact. But I stick to my conclusion that a densely populated country where agriculture is already suffering due to water shortages is highly advised to search for efficient and sustainable solutions. India could move one step ahead and in my opinion this topic is already with policymakers. India already searches for integrated solutions. In this respect climate protection, adjustment, sustainable development and the fight against poverty must be seen as one topic. This is good development though India is still in a initiating stage..
Upgrading international cooperation could support India successfully on its path.
How can the climate science and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) help in dealing with the risks of climate change in a responsible manner?
We see our task in producing reliable and valid research. Based on the fact of topicality our conclusions are matters of public debates. Sometimes it is disillusioning especially when we receive direct criticism. Nevertheless climate research remains our primary objective. As an institute that combines social, natural as well as economic scientific knowledge we have the opportunity to look closer, not only to discover options for climate protection but also to create regional models. This is a unique working environment in the world and totally inspiring.
Following the minimum consensus of the conference of Copenhagen to cooperate closer on the international stage, we see countries like India or Brasilia as prospective important actors.
In order to strengthen this cooperation there exists at PIK the North-South-Taskforce since one year. . It is lead by myself and considers especially the problems of climate and development. The main question is to what extend the accelerated climate change excludes development objectives in certain regions. How does change to sustainability works out considering sluggish technology transfer etc.
In this context the focus is often set on financing options but until now no state has considered yet how what it means to change to sustainable development and would be its main features.. This is of utmost necessity as climate protection and adaptation must be implemented in the end on a national as well as at a regional level. In this respective we see several scientific problems that persist unsolved.
How do you rate the institutional cooperation with India?
We have several existing cooperation with Indian institutions that work vey well.
Together with partners we are implementing a scientific research project related to the megacities for example in Hyderabad that is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Moreover we are starting a project related to climate protection and adaptation in four major Indian cities together with the “International Council of Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI)”.. This project is funded by the climate initiative of the Federal Ministry for the Environment. Furthermore there exist close relations to the local offices and projects of the German Society for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) with regards to climate issues.
In the framework of another project that is also funded by the Federal Ministry for the Environment we are establishing an interactive information portal related to topics like climate change, climate impact and climate adaptation that shall support local decision makers. Also in this respect India a subcomponent and many regional studies are planned.
In the future we would like to establish a project on sustainable development pathways for individual countries –India being a close cooperating partner.
For this purpose we are enlarging our cooperation and securing relations through subsidies. .
Interview conducted by Dr. Michael Köberlein, Country Director, Heinrich Böll Foundation- India Office.
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